In Kansas, where I live, we have experienced a second
consecutive summer of extreme heat and drought. We are not alone. People I talk
to keep hoping this is an anomaly, a simple weather pattern that will change
and bring cooler, wetter weather next summer.
Would that it were true. But the overwhelming evidence from
climate scientists around the world is that climate change is happening. And
“an increasing body of science points to rising dangers from the ongoing
buildup of human-related greenhouse gases—produced mainly by the burning of
fossil fuels and forests,” according to a report in the New York Times.
Furthermore, “global emissions of carbon dioxide jumped by
the largest amount on record in 2010” (5.9 percent). This trend, scientists
fear, “will make it difficult, if not impossible, to forestall severe climate
change in coming decades.”
Meanwhile, political powers have generally put the brakes on
taking any kind of concerted action to address this problem. The United Nations
can’t agree on a plan, and the U.S. Congress is influenced by money from fossil
fuel companies and ideological foes to the idea that humans contribute to
climate change.
A growing number of businesses recognize that short-term
profits aren’t too helpful when long-term survival is in question, and there
are some hopeful changes being made. But unless the majority of political
powers get on board and make significant changes in the production of
greenhouse gases, the heat and droughts and storms will likely continue.
I say likely because science deals in probabilities, not
certainties. Many people seem to think that if something isn’t certain they
don’t have to worry about it, especially if it means they’ll have to change how
they live.
There has been an established scientific consensus about the
role of climate change in causing weather extremes, but a recent paper by James
D. Hansen, a prominent NASA climate scientist, and two co-authors has gone
further in tying specific weather events to climate change.
According to the paper, published online on Aug. 6,
“scientists can claim with near certainty that events like the Texas heat wave
last year (see photo above), the Russian heat wave of 2010 and the European heat wave of 2003
would not have happened without the planetary warming caused by the human release
of greenhouse gases,” writes Justin Gillis the New York Times.
The paper argues that “the percentage of the earth’s land
surface covered by extreme heat in the summer has soared in recent decades,
from less than 1 percent in the years before 1980 to as much as 13 percent in
recent years.”
In an interview, Hansen says that “the change is too large
to be natural,” and adds, “It’s just going to get worse.”
The response of his scientific colleagues, however, was
split. Some experts agreed with the paper’s findings, while others were not
persuaded that specific heat waves could be tied to global warming.
One climate scientist, Andrew J. Weaver, “compared the
warming of recent years to a measles outbreak popping up in different places.
As with a measles epidemic, he said, it makes sense to suspect a common cause,”
writes Gillis.
While the powers drag their feet, what do we do? Ignore the evidence
and hope for the best? Let the next generation take care of it?
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